Economy, Foreign Direct Investment

ECONOMIC CENSUS 2011 REVEALS REAL GNP IS 110% HIGHER THAN OFFICIAL ESTIMATION

Diciembre 14th 2012 | Postado por Braspar

PIB real paraguayo fue más de USD 52.000 millones en 2011

PIB

PIB

ECONOMIC CENSUS 2011: Real GNP is 110% bigger than official estimation
Preliminary results of Economic Census 2012 brought up that Paraguayan real Gross National Product was USD 52.6 billion in 2011, instead the official estimation of USD 24.2 billion.
Official Central Bank’s National Account Outdated database (more than 20 years without update) and deficient methodology are the main causes of under registration.
However, in 2004 a Brazilian economic researcher, named Wagner Enis Weber, published a real GNP estimation, which was about 100% over the official one.
And in 2012, preliminary results of the official Economic Census 2011 reported a real GNP of USD 52 billion in 2011, or 110% over the real Central Bank’s estimation.
According to latest works, based on new database, Paraguayan economy raised 3.5% in 2012, reaching the nominal value of USD 56.2 billion and a per capita income of USD 9,046, once preliminary official population census 2012 brought as result 6,200,000 inhabitants, about 10% less than anterior official estimations.
GNP BY SECTOR
The main economic sector is Tertiary which represents about 62% of Paraguayan economy, mostly in function of the intense trade between Paraguay and Brazil, once commerce represents 33% of local economy, and services, other 29%.
According to Economic Census 2011, Paraguayan-Brazilian border trade was about USD 20 billion, what means 300% more than estimated by Central Bank National Account’s department.
The Secondary sector represents 21% of Paraguayan economy, remarking the importance of electricity production and exports.
Manufacture is 12% of Paraguayan GNP, and actually local industry is bigger than Uruguayan manufacture. Construction owns a share of 5% of GDP and energy production, 4%, mainly because ITAIPU Dam production and export to Brazil.
The smallest economic sector is Primary.
The Primary sector represents about 12% of national GNP, and the country is one of the biggest world grain and cattle meat exporters.
By 2013, grain crops will represent about 16-17 million tons, being half of it soybeans.
This year meat exports shell reach another record, reaching above 250,000 tons of exports, and more than USD 1.2 billion in sales
Finally, internal indirect taxes represent about 5% of local GDP. It is the lowest rate in South America, once Paraguay’s tax pressure if the 5th lowest tax burden in the world, with only 8.2% in 2012.

PARAGUAY PIB 2011 POR SECTOR
millones de USD Peso Sectorial
SECTOR PRIMARIO 6.280 12%
SECUNDARIO 11.100 21%
TERCIARIO 35.220 67%
TOTAL 52.600 100%
PARAGUAY PIB POR INGRESO
Millones de USD
Renta Familiar 26.200,00
Renta de las empresas 17.000,00
Deprecición Acumulada 7.200,00
Renta del Gobierno 2.200,00
Total 52.600,00

Estimation BRASPAR in bases of official Economic Census results and complementary official data.

Observación: Economic Census reached 2/3of Paraguayan companies. The other third did not answer the questionary.

Business 5 Días Diary confirms GNP under registration estimation

by the end of 2012, the most important Paraguayan business dairy, named 5 Días, printed a large report showing the Paraguayan GNP under registration was about 110%, and real GNP reached USD 52 billion in 2011.

http://www.5dias.com.py/21765-actualizacin-del-valor-pib-urge-inclusin-total-de-los-ingresos-del-pas

http://www.5dias.com.py/21702-pib-oficial-de-paraguay-tendra-un-desfase-del-50-comparado-con-el-real

Paraguay Central Bank recognizes statistical failure and promises to fix it

The Paraguayan Central Bank President, Jorge Corvalán, recognized, in november 30 of 2012, in entreview to the Diary ABC Color, the National Accounts statistical failure, outdated at 20 years, and promised to fix the situation through the use of new Economic Census.

Paraguay will be the 8th largest Latin American economy by 2015

El Producto Interno Bruto guaraní debe cerrar el año con crecimiento de 4,5%, siendo que para 2013 se espera una recuperación hacía 7,8%, de acuerdo al Centro de Estudios Económicos del BRASPAR.

Paraguayan economy shell continue raising about 7% a year in the next decade, according to BRASPAR estimation. If this prevision is confirmed, Pargauayan economy shell become the 8th largest in Latin America by 2015. In 2011, Paraguay real GNP was the 11th largest in the region, while in 1972, it was the 2nd smallest. .

GNP Ranking in Latin America and Caribbean in 2011

Billions of US$ nominal GNP

2011                       1972 Evolución 72-2001

PIB

PIB

Para o Paraguay: datos de BRASPAR con base em el último Censo Econômico 2012 y la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares 2011.

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